How We Saw Week 13

A fade on third and goal?

After a timeout with 18 seconds left on Sunday, down by four points and facing a third and goal from the one, the Indianapolis Colts called a fade.

And not just any fade.  This one wasn’t even to the corner.  It was a fade to the sideline – a horizontal throw with an incredibly small margin of error.

But this wasn’t just a fade to the sideline.  Oh, no.  This was a sideline fade to Aaron Moorehead – a rookie receiver who had caught only seven passes all season, had never caught a pass in the red zone, and hadn’t touched the ball all day.  Hell, he hadn’t even been thrown to all day. 

All this, and All Pro Marvin Harrison (69 catches this season) and Reggie Wayne (56) were together on the right side of the line.  Troy Walters (31) was on the bench.

The thought process that led them to throw that pass to Moorehead:  on a fade, the 6’3” Moorehead would be able to get a high ball over 5’8” Tyrone Poole. 

The problem:  YOU’RE DOWN BY FOUR WITH MAYBE THE BEST RECEIVER IN THE GAME, ONE OF THE BEST RUNNING BACKS IN THE GAME, AND YOU’RE THROWING A TOUGH FADE PATTERN TO A ROOKIE WHO COULD GET STOPPED BY A BUMP AT THE LINE!  Try it on first down.  Heck, try it on second down.  But, not on third down – if you miss it, you have one shot.  That’s it.  Game over.

The “cutesy play” is just more proof of the influence of one man in recent years in the NFL:  Paul Hackett.

Hackett is the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets.  He made a name and a reputation for himself as the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs in the 1990s.

One of his most notable calls was on fourth and very short in the 1995 playoff game against the aforementioned Indianapolis Colts.  Marcus Allen had been averaging about 100 yards every time he touched the ball.  The game was tied and the Chiefs were going for it.  Instead of handing off to Allen for as sure of a first down as you can get in football, he called a swing pass to Tony Richardson, who had not caught a pass the entire season.  It being January and sub-freezing, this was a bad time to ask him to catch his first ball.  Predictably, he dropped the pass and the Colts went on to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

The Chiefs are just now recovering from that loss.

Now with the New York Jets, Hackett has brought his insightful playcalling with him.  With the Jets, though, something else has reared its ugly head:  the “duh” play.  It’s third and six and you’re down by seven.  Quick, what do you do?  Throw a pass, right?  Well, Hackett would agree with you there.  Throw an eight-yard out, or a 10-yard slant or a seven-yard button hook.  Throw anything, but make sure it’s for at least six yards, right?  Not for Paul Hackett.  He likes to throw five-yard passes on third and six and throw three yard swing passes on fourth and four. 

Hackett was, apparently, brain dead the first four weeks of the season.  With over-the-hill Vinny Testaverde at quarterback, and All Pro running back Curtis Martin beside him, Hackett decided to throw the ball.  A lot.  In fact, 65.5% of the Jets’ called plays in the first four weeks were passes.  Shocker:  they were 0-4.  Since then, the Jets have run the ball more than pass six of their eight games.  The result:  A 5-3 record over the last eight games.  At 5-7, it’s too little too late.  If Hackett had decided to run the ball more in the first four games (against New England and Dallas combined, they ran the ball 28 times and called 90 pass plays!), they might be just a game behind Baltimore for a wild card spot.  Instead, they’re dead.

Like I said, Hackett’s bad play-calling is contagious in the League this year.  Just look at the Green Bay Packers.  Same dilemma as the Jets.  When they run the ball more than they throw the ball, they are 5-1; when they throw more than run, they’re 1-5.  In fact, when they run the ball 30+ times, they are 6-1, the only loss coming to Kansas City in overtime when the defense allowed 13 points and the offense gave up a touchdown on an interception – all in the fourth quarter. 

The Packers’ game on Thanksgiving was emblematic of their entire disappointing season.  In Week 2, Ahman Green ran the ball 23 times for 160 yards against the Detroit Lions and the Packers won, 31-6.  On Thanksgiving, he ran the ball 13 times for 57 yards.  That’s a great 4.4 yard/carry average.  The Packers threw the ball 41 times and ran the ball 16 times in that game.  And lost to the Detroit Lions.

In a pass-happy League, you wonder why more guys don’t see it.  Even the high-flying-adored offense of the St. Louis Rams gets a boost from the run.  When they run more than they pass this season, they are 1-0;  When they run 30+ times per game, they are 3-0; when they run under 20 times per game, they are 0-2.  In their two most glaring losses (at the Giants and at the 49ers), they Rams ran the ball a total of 21 times and called 108 pass plays.  

In all four of their victories, the Washington Redskins have run the ball 29+ times.  In only one defeat have they reached that number, and that was a fourth quarter collapse to the Miami Dolphins.

Paul Hackett is a blunderer.  But, he seems to have learned from his missteps of the first four weeks:  since that 0-4 start when they never rushed the ball more than 26 times, they have run the ball under 30 times only once.  That was three weeks ago and, not surprisingly, was a loss.

Will the Colts staff learn to not get cutesy?  Their Super Bowl run will depend on it.

Will the Packers coaching staff learn to run the ball?  Their playoff hopes will depend on it.

Will Mike Martz and Steve Spurrier learn that running the football leads to greater success?  What’s that adage about teach an old dog a new trick . . .

--Best comments by a coach this season came from Oakland's Bill Callahan after his 3-9 Raiders stumbled and bumbled in a 22-8 loss to Denver:

“If we don't learn how not to beat ourselves, we won’t win again, and we won’t win for a long time,” Callahan shouted to reporters after the game.  “We’ve got to be the dumbest team in America in terms of playing the game. I’m highly critical because of the way we give games away-- we give ‘em away! Period. It’s embarrassing, and I represent that. And I apologize for that. If that’s the best we can do, it’s a sad product.”

--New England’s 38-34 thriller over Indianapolis was the best game I’ve seen all season. The Patriots go up, 31-10, only to see the Colts tie it. New England then goes back ahead, 38-31, the Colts kick a field goal, then have four chances from the 2-yard line to win the game in the final 30 seconds. A run gets 1 yard, another run gets no gain, a pass in incomplete and a run on fourth down loses 1. Pats win.

Cyd has talked in depth at the left about NFL play calling in general, but here is my take on the Colts’ last four plays. The three runs—all by Edgerrin James—didn’t bother me. He’s their best running back and it isn’t a lot to ask him to gain 2 yards. Hats off to the Patriots for playing great run defense.

However, the third-down pass to Aaron Morehead was insanely stupid. It was a fade to the left corner and I hate those calls on third or fourth down since they are all or nothing. Either the receiver gets open or the play is doomed. Why not allow Peyton Manning to spread the field and have a variety of pass options? With James, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Troy Walters and Marcus Pollard to throw to, the Colts decide to hinge their hopes on a rookie (Morehead has only seven catches all year) getting open. A dumb move.

Charlie, a friend of mine, whose football opinions I respect, had this take: "I don't know about the Colts--the pass play wasn't inspired, I agree, but the first down run wasn't promising and James had not been having a brilliant day [or the offensive line]. Manning being really hot, it's hard to believe that he couldn't find somebody in the end zone on play action. Maybe there are things I'm not aware of, but I throw it again, at least once, maybe twice."

--New England’s key player was kick returner Bethel Johnson. His 92-yard kickoff return for a touchdown as the first-half clock sent to 0:00 was a stunner. He added a 67-yarder in the fourth quarter to set up New England’s last touchdown. The Patriots have won eight in a row because they keep getting key plays from all parts of their team, even on special teams.

--A pet peeve: Does ever feature on an NFL player or coach have to include a dozen music clips? Fox, CBS, ABC and ESPN are all guilty. Music should be used sparingly to be effective and these segments have the feel of being produced by a hyperactive 10-year-old. For once can we have a story subject speak for 10 seconds without some musical interlude?

--How bad is the NFC North? Chicago (5-7) is only two games of first. And the Bears are lousy. They are, however, playing better than Minnesota (7-5), which started 6-0 but has now lost 5 of 6. Green Bay (6-6) keeps blowing chances to pick up ground, including losing Thanksgiving to an inferior Detroit team. Minnesota will probably win the division by default at 8-8.

--Cincinnati is for real. The Bengals started 0-3 but have now won 7 of 8 to stay in a first-place tie with the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati looked finished at Pittsburgh, trailing 20-17, with less than a minute to go. But quarterback Jon Kitna rallied the Kitties by throwing an 18-yard touchdown pass to Matt Schobel with only 12 seconds left. The Bengals play at Baltimore next week with first place in the AFC North on the line. The Steelers (4-8) were my preseason Super Bowl pick but are now eliminated from the playoffs.

--The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks continued their schizophrenic season by routing Cleveland, 34-7. The ‘Hawks are 7-0 at home and only 1-4 on the road. The bad news for Seattle is that they have only one home game left. The good news is that they play Minnesota next week, and the Vikings have lost two of its last three home games.

--Philadelphia and St. Louis are now tied for the NFC’s best records at 9-3. The Eagles beat the Carolina Panthers, 25-16, handing the Panthers their third loss in their last five games. Carolina gets Atlanta next week in what will be Falcons quarterback Michael Vick's first start of the season. If momentum means anything, the Eagles should go far in the playoffs while the Panthers should fold early.

--The bests after 12 weeks: AFC's top team--Kansas City. New England is a close second. The Chiefs' defense, though, is struggling. NFC's top team--Philadelphia, with St. Louis second. The Iggles keep getting better.

MVP: Peyton Manning. He was brilliant against New England (four TD passes). It wasn't his fault his defense gave up 38 points. Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis (18 tackles and an interception for a touchdown on Sunday) is second, along with Tennessee QB Steve McNair.