How We Saw Week 14

Today I was accused of not knowing what I was talking about.

Every week I appear on Harrison On The Edge – a radio show on Sirius OutQ.  Last week, I made the claim that the Patriots looked like the best team in football.  Jason Page, an OutQ personality and an Outsports contributor, quickly piped in telling me I didn’t know what I was talking about and that the Chiefs were the best team in football.

This week, I asserted the same thing:  the Patriots are the best team in football.  Again, Jason (at my urging) piped in and said that, again, I didn’t know what I was talking about and that the Baltimore Ravens were the team to beat in the AFC.

So, I figured I’d look into these three teams and try to figure out if he’s right:  do I know what I’m talking about?

In fairness, we won’t even talk about the fact that the New England Patriots have the best record in the NFL – tied with Kansas City.  We won’t bring up the fact that the Patriots also have the longest winning streak in the NFL at 9. 

I will, however, talk about where the Patriots’ 11 wins came from.  Of the 12 teams with the best records in the NFL (all 8-5 or better), the Patriots have beaten half of them.  And, they’ve beaten one of them twice!  And of those six teams they’ve beaten, five of them have been victories on the road!!  Not one of those top 12 teams has beaten the Patriots.

In contrast, the Ravens have beaten only two of those teams (both games at home) and have lost to three of them.

The Chiefs are 2-1 against those 12 teams; the Colts are 3-2; the Titans are 2-3. 

In short, these other teams haven’t even played as many games against Top 12 teams as the Patriots have won – and the Patriots haven’t lost ANY.

Jason also asserted that the Ravens have an “incredible” defense and the Patriots don’t have anything to hang their hat on – you need one aspect of the game you can rely on, to win in January.

Aside from the fact that the Patriots won the Super Bowl two years ago with, it was asserted, no one aspect of the game to hang their hat on, I found these other tidbits enticing:

Of these five AFC teams, the Patriots have the fewest points allowed at 209.  The “incredible” Raven defense has allowed 251 points.  In the last three games (all at home) for the Ravens, they have allowed 60 points.  The Patriots (with only one home game in their last three) have allowed 54.

After perusing NFL.com for the defensive numbers, I headed to CNNSI.com to find what Paul Zimmerman – the Great “Doctor Z” – had to say.  Instead, I found a poll:  Who is the Super Bowl favorite in the AFC?  The outcome:  a whopping 6% picked Baltimore; ten times that many picked New England. 

Hmmm – New England has the best record in the NFL, has the best scoring defense of the teams presently in contention, has not lost a game against a Top 12 team, and 61% of voters on Cnnsi.com pick them as the favorite in the AFC.  

For the kicker, in our August NFL preview, I put the Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs as my top 3 teams in the AFC.

Not bad for someone who doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

--In Philadelphia and New England, the current top seeds in each conference, we have two very good but very boring teams. The Eagles don’t have a running back or wide receiver in the league’s Top 20 and quarterback Donovan McNabb is only 17^th rated. Their longest pass play is 52 yards and most fans would be hard-pressed to name one of their receivers. The Iggles have patented the term “winning ugly.” 

As for New England, they’re thrilling on the road but snoozers at home (where they would play all their AFC playoff games if they are the No. 1 seed). Here are the scores of the last four Patriot home games: 17-6, 9-3, 12-0 and 12-0. On Sunday, in their 12-0 snowy win over Miami, the Pats defense outscored their offense, 9-3.  

QB Tom Brady has thrown 14 touchdowns on the road but only one at home. The Pats defense has not allowed a touchdown in their last four home games. Contrast this with the Pats’ last four road games (all wins): 19-13 (overtime); 30-26 (won in the last minute); 23-20 (overtime) and 38-34 (held Indy four chances from the 2).  

This is not to say that either Philadelphia or New England don’t deserve their top billing. It’s just that only hard-core fans of these teams can enjoy watching them play, New England at home and the Eagles anywhere. 

--That sound you hear is the air coming out of the Kansas City Chiefs’ balloon. KC looked unbeatable early in the season, but they look more and more vulnerable heading into the playoffs. The Chiefs are 2-2 in the last month, and were positively flattened by Denver on Sunday, 45-27. Clinton Portis ran for 218 yards and five touchdowns, exposing  a shaky KC run defense. The Chiefs receivers (save for tight end Tony Gonzalez) are average and seldom come up with the clutch catch. And the offensive coordinators seem to do their best to misuse RB Priest Holmes. A case in point Sunday: Chiefs lead, 21-17 and have 3^rd and 1. Logic would call for a Holmes run to keep the drive alive. Instead, he’s on the bench and the Chiefs screw up on a play-action pass. Getting cute will get you killed come playoff time. 

--The best catch I’ve seen all season came Sunday by Marvin Harrison of the Colts in their 29-27 win at Tennessee. Harrison went deep for a pass from Peyton Manning. The ball was slightly overthrown, but Harrison got a hand on it. He pulled the ball in with his right hand as he was falling down. He used his left arm to brace himself as he secured the ball. The result was a 42-yard completion that set up a touchdown. Harrison was simply brilliant.

--What might have been. Atlanta QB Michael Vick, starting in his first game of the season following a broken leg, was brilliant Sunday night in the Falcons' 20-14 win over division-leading Carolina. Vick threw for 179 yards and rushed for 141 and seemed to invigorate the whole team. A Falcon defense that had been porous all season suddenly stiffened and won the game on an interception return for a touchdown in overtime by Kevin Mathis.

--Think home field doesn’t matter? The four teams in the NFC West are 22-4 at home and 4-21 on the road. San Francisco and Arizona are winless on the road, while Seattle is 1-5. The Seahawks were embarrassing in losing 34-7 at Minnesota, which has been woeful of late. 

--Ed “Guns” Hochuli is my favorite official. He’s always in control and offers the best explanations of any ref. A good example came in the Green Bay-Chicago game. Bears QB Kordell Stewart was scrambling around and finally threw the ball away. The Lambeau Field crowd went crazy booing, calling for intentional grounding. But Hochuli, despite not having a penalty called, got on his mike and explained that since Stewart had left the pocket, there was no grounding. 

--Here is how I see the playoff picture with three weeks left:

Officially in: New England, Kansas City and Philadelphia:

Virtually in: Carolina, St. Louis, Indianapolis and Tennessee.

Definitely in If They Win Their Final Three Games: Minnesota, Dallas, Seattle, Baltimore and Denver.

Need to Win Out and Also Need Help: Green Bay, Miami, Cincinnati.

Technically Alive, Realistically Dead: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco.