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Go with your Gut

My gut feeling right after the Divisional round was that it would be a Seahawks-Steelers Super Bowl. Over the course of the next week, I convinced myself it would be the complete opposite. I still haven't learned that I often over-think these things and that I should just stick with my gut. So, here's my gut feeling about the Super Bowl.

I was shocked to hear that the Pittsburgh Steelers were favored by over a field goal in this game. There are a few things that factor into the Steelers being favored.

First, the AFC is far more respected than the NFC this year (as it has been for a while now). But, the AFC was only two games over .500 combined; the NFC was two games under .500. This isn't the Pro Bowl where the best players from each conference are matched up; this is a game between two teams who were separated in record by three games (that loss at Green Bay was simply because they didn't play their guys, having locked up the top seed in the NFC), so which conference is better is irrelevant to me.

Second, the Steelers had a tougher road to the Super Bowl, beating the top three seeds in the "better" conference, while the Seahawks beat the worst two seeds in the "weaker" conference. Again, irrelevant. When the Titans played the Rams in the Super Bowl in 2000, they had had a tougher playoff road than the Rams. In 2004, Carolina had had a tougher playoff road than the Patriots. Besides, who had the "tougher" playoff schedule between the Steelers and the Panthers could be argued either way. The Steelers did get to play a team without its starting quarterback (except for two plays) in the first round, and got to play two chokers at quarterback in the second and third rounds. Barring injury, they won't get that luxury in Detroit. Meanwhile, the Seahawks played in the playoffs against two quarterbacks who had been to conference championships before, and one of them barely lost in the Super Bowl two years ago.

Third is the sentimentality of Jerome Bettis "going home." The CBS postgame was nauseating with the talk of Bettis going to his hometown of Detroit (where he played for McKenzie High School) for his first Super Bowl and probably his last game. You could see Bettis mouthing as the ticks on the clock went down, "I'm going home," and he gladly repeated it for the cameras after the game. I don't see that as an advantage, I see it as a distraction. The number of people who will be knocking on his door for Super Bowl tickets will be more than the guys who'd be knocking on Tom Brady's (left) door had the Patriots been playing the Super Bowl up the road from South Beach.

Fourth is the Steelers' win streak. At seven games, it is the NFL's longest (and $10 says you can't name off the top of your head who owns the league's second-longest active win streak). Five of those seven wins were over teams that were in the playoff hunt until the very end; and four of them were playoff teams. Little is being said, however, about the Seahawks' own streak. Yes, they lost in the last week of the regular season to the Green Bay Packers, but Seattle pulled their starters once Shaun Alexander grabbed the season rushing title and set an NFL record for touchdowns in a season. If you take out that game, Seattle's last loss was October 2. Of their 15 wins, they won by single digits only six times.

Finally, and this is actually one that could have a game-time effect: there are simply more people hoping the Steelers win than there are hoping the Seahawks will win. That pushes the spread in the Steelers' favor because far too many people bet with their hearts and not their heads. My guess is, if it was the New York Giants versus the Steelers, it would be just about a  pick 'em, simply because there are that many more Giants fans than there are Seahawks fans. Why will this actually affect the game? Because Ford Field will likely be a see of black and gold on February 5, and that's going to help the Steelers dramatically.

If you buy into these five reasons, then by all means, you should go with Pittsburgh. But, it seems people often put a lot of stock in things that just don't affect the game. The games that each of these two teams, and their opponents, and their opponents' opponents, have played are meaningless – they won't affect the outcome of the game in any way. It's the number-one mistake that people make when making predictions – they put far too much weight on the past. You might as well say that the last time these two teams played one another (in 2003), the Seahawks won, 23-16; so they'll win again. It's why I'm better betting on my gut – once I start thinking about all of the other stuff I've seen in the last few weeks and months, that information changes my mind.

My gut tells me two things. First, it's going to be a blowout. Whoever wins, the final score won't be close. I see 30-16, 34-17, 28-10. Something like that. I'm much more confident about this prediction than I am about who's going to be doing the clobbering and who's going to get clobbered.

The second thing my gut tells me is that it will be Mike Holmgren winning his second Super Bowl title, not Bill Cowher winning his first. I can give you all the reasons in the world – Shaun Alexander's rushing, Lofa Tatupu's (left) presence on the field, Matt Hasselbeck's determination, Holmgren's coaching prowess when he's not involved in the front office. I could go on and on, but there's just no need. Predicting accurately what will happen is far less about reasons than it is about the stars, the vibe. It's about gut feeling. And mine says Seattle 37, Pittsburgh 20.

--We’ll have plenty to say on the Super Bowl over the next two weeks, but my early read says Pittsburgh. The Steelers beating Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver on the road (the 1-2-3 seeds) is much more impressive than Seattle beating Washington and Carolina (5 and 6 seeds) at home. The AFC is far superior to the NFC and the Steelers are playing really well together now, having won seven in a row. Steelers 30, Seahawks 13. 

--Here is how dominant the public considers the AFC: The Steelers were the sixth seed (out of six) in the AFC playoff field. Yet they have been made four-point Super Bowl favorites over Seattle, the top seed in the NFC. The line is set to gain an equal amount of money wagered on each side. The AFC has won six of the last eight Super Bowls. 

"Seattle's going to have their hands full," Bob Scucci, sportsbook director at the Stardust, told AP. "Seattle was expected to win. Pittsburgh went through the one, two, and three seeds, and a lot of people think the AFC from top-to-bottom was a lot better conference than the NFC."

--Sunday was not a good day for quarterbacks named Jake. Denver’s Jake Plummer threw two interceptions and fumbled twice as the Broncos lost the AFC title game to Pittsburgh, 34-17. Plummer finished with a bad 66.4 quarterback rating (158.3 is tops). 

In Seattle, Jake Delhomme was awful, throwing three interceptions as the Carolina Panthers got stomped by the Seahawks, 34-14. Delhomme finished with a ghastly 34.9 rating. It is ironic that Delhomme came into the game with the highest playoff rating in history, but bombed in Seattle. 

--In contrast, the winning quarterbacks were nearly flawless and their stats were nearly identical. Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh was 21 of 29 for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Matt Hasselbeck of Seattle was 20 for 28 for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Neither threw an interception. 

--The Seahawks are clearly not a national team, playing in a beautiful but (by NFL standards) remote city, over 800 miles away from the next closest NFL city. And the Steelers haven’t made the Super Bowl since the 1995 season, so they have yet to capture the public’s imagination. So it was not surprising to see commercials Sunday by Peyton Manning (“Will you sign my bread?), Tom Brady (“No, I’m fraud monitoring”) and Donovan McNabb (and his Chunky Soup mom), all stars whose teams will not be Super Bowl-bound.

Win or lose, I don’t think many Seahawks will be in commercials, but I think Roethlisberger becomes a breakout star with a Super Bowl victory. If I were Gillette, I would sign him to be a spokesman for the new five-blade razor by shaving off his hideous beard.  

--The Broncos began the season losing 34-10 to Miami, as Plummer threw two interceptions. They closed the season looking about the same. In between, they went 13-2, but Bronco fans will no doubt remember why people have said that Plummer can’t win a  big game. 

--The Broncos loss was a total team effort. The defense, which was much improved all season, fell apart. Here were the Steelers’ first four drives: 12 plays, 62 yards, 6:29 time elapsed, field goal; 5 plays, 39 yards, 2:53, touchdown; 14 plays, 80 yards, 7:28, touchdown; and 4 plays, 38 yards, 141 yards, touchdown. It added up to a 24-3 halftime lead. 

--The Broncos had brought in three key defensive linemen from Cleveland in the offseason and that should have been a tipoff to the outcome, since the Browns never beat the Steelers. 

--This has been a weird postseason for the Steelers. They became the second team to ever win three road playoff games (joining the 1985 Patriots), after being 0-3 in road playoff games under Bill Cowher. They won the AFC title on the road, after going 1-4 at home in the game under Cowher. They became the first sixth-seed to reach the Super Bowl. The Steelers seemed to thrive this season by not having many pick them to do much in the playoffs.

"This year, there was no expectations on us,'' said Steelers receiver Hines Ward, comparing this Pittsburgh playoff run to last year, when the Steelers were top-seeded and barely beat the Jets before losing to New England. "We were the No. 6 seed. We weren't supposed to go to Cincy and win, or Indy, or here. No one thought the Steelers could do it three games in a row.'' 

--The Steelers also thrived because Cowher shed his normal conservatism in the playoffs. Their vaunted running game has been pedestrian the last two weeks, averaging only 2.7 yards a carry. But the passing game has been electric, with Big Ben and the boys staking Pittsburgh to a 21-3 lead at Indy and 24-3 lead at Denver. If then Steelers play this well in the Super Bowl, Seattle is done. 

--Steeler safety Troy Polamalu is a stud. He made one play against Denver that was typical, fighting through a block to turn a sure first down into a fourth-and-1. He is the kind of defender that seems to be involved on every play. 

--Crime against nature: Buff NFL ref Ed “Guns” Hochuli, a big hit with announcers and gay fans, was in Seattle and wearing long sleeves. Boo! 

--I have two cats, one orange, the other gray. I joke that the orange one is a Bengals fan, while the gray one, Kandreeky, likes the Panthers. Right before halftime of the Seattle-Carolina game, I said to Kandreeky that his Panthers suck. About 30 seconds later, he walked over and proceeded to barf up his dinner on the rug beneath my feet. It was more fire than any Panther player showed all game. 

--I was surprised at how bad Carolina was. Coming into the game they had gone 4-0 in the NFC playoffs (2003 and this season) and manhandled New York and Chicago. In addition, Seattle looked average in holding off the Redskins last week. Sunday’s outcome tells us how bad the Giants and Bears were and that Seattle played with focus and passion. 

--Fox’s Terry Bradshaw is a weird dude. In the postgame awards ceremony, he asked Seattle owner Paul Allen (of Microsoft fame) if he could help him with his e-mail. Huh? Then he asked Matt Hasselbeck to take his hat off, then the two baldies rubbed their heads together and Bradshaw said that Hasselbeck was the sexiest man in Seattle. Matt and Terry in “Barehead Mountain.” 

--Seattle’s win was redemption for coach Mike Holmgren, who took over the team in 1999 but had not been able to win a playoff game until last week. He came close to resigning after a power struggle but proved that he is a good coach with the Hawks’ 15-3 record this season. He did his best job the past two seasons after he was stripped of his general manager duties and could focus just on coaching.  

--Seattle got a huge break when Panthers running back Nick Goings left the game in the first quarter with an injury and never returned. Considering that Goings is the third-string back (both Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster were out), Carolina was reduced to a passing team the rest of the way, which allowed the Seahawks defense to ignore the run.  

--With away team Pittsburgh winning, road teams were 6-4 in the playoffs, the most wins ever since the current format was adopted in 1990.  

--For those of you with a political bent, the Super Bowl will feature two blue state teams (which beat two red states to get there). The World Series was won by a blue state team (over a red state), the NBA by one from a red state (over a blue state).

--We will see if we wish the New England Patriots were back in the Super Bowl. The three Patriot Super Bowls (2001-2003-2004 seasons) were all decided by three points, including two in the final seconds. In contrast, the 2000 and 2002 Patriot-less Super Bowls were each won by 27 points.