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NHL Stanley Cup Finals Preview
Oilers-Hurricanes Unlikely Matchup

By Stephen Cohen

Discuss the Stanley Cup Finals

It wasn’t supposed to be like this... Not in the Western Conference anyway! The West was stacked with hot teams like the Detroit Red Wings, Dallas Stars, and Calgary Flames, who were supposed to make life miserable for the lower-seeded teams. The eighth seed is typically an afterthought—a team that squeaks into the playoffs in the final couple of weeks. But, even when the top four seeds of this conference went down in the first round, nobody gave the eighth-seeded Edmonton Oilers much of a chance past the remaining higher-seeded teams, such as the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

But after the Oilers dispatched the Red Wings in the first round and the Sharks in the conference semifinals, both in six games, they made quick work of the Mighty Ducks, winning in an efficient five games.

Oilers’ goalie Dwayne Roloson (who halfway through the season was traded to Edmonton from the Minnesota Wild after sharing duties for several years with Manny Fernandez), is looking like a major contender for the Conn Smythe Trophy (Playoff MVP) with 12 wins and an insane .931 save percentage. In addition, after years of playing dazzling hockey with the St. Louis Blues during the regular season, but continuously being eliminated in disappointing fashion in the playoffs, Chris Pronger is playing the best hockey of his illustrious career with 17 points so far in this 2006 postseason. Shawn Horcoff has become a big-time player with 17 points of his own for the Oilers. Fernando Pisani has become a goal-scoring machine with 9 goals. Also, Ryan Smyth is the leader on this team, getting it done with physical play and key passing and shooting ability, all of which have enabled him to provide 14 points of his own. This has now proven to the loyal fans of Edmonton, albeit almost two decades later, that there is life after Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier.

But what about the Eastern Conference? Not so crazy. The Ottawa Senators continue to be one of the most consistent playoff busts in modern NHL history. The New Jersey Devils impressed in the first round against a heavily banged up New York Rangers team, but quickly bowed out in the conference semifinals. The Buffalo Sabres provided us with thrills throughout the playoffs, when their head coach Lindy Ruff wasn’t stealing the spotlight from them, but eventually succumbed to the Carolina Hurricanes in a thrilling seven-game conference final.

The Hurricanes spread their success around with young stars, like Eric Staal (20 playoff points), Justin Williams (14 points), and Matt Cullen (13 points), along with veteran stars, such as Cory Stillman (19 points), Rod Brind’Amour (15 points), and Doug Weight (13 points). In addition, the Hurricanes have proven that two goalies are necessary in the new NHL. While Martin Gerber was the main stopper during the regular season, it was Cam Ward who stepped up in the first round when the Canes were down 0-2 to the seventh-seeded Montreal Canadiens. While the goaltending has been, at times, inconsistent, Hurricanes coach Peter Laviolette knew exactly when to make the correct shifts with his goaltenders. Coming off Gerber’s brilliant 4-0 blanking of the Sabres at Buffalo in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Laviolette did not hesitate to pull the trigger on a struggling Gerber in lieu of Ward after the Canes were down 3-1 in the second period of Game 5. Ward was perfect for the rest of the game, and the Canes came back in the final two periods and eventually got the game-winner in overtime. This move was crucial because if it didn't happen, we would most likely be discussing the Sabres' chances in the Stanley Cup Finals.

So who will win?

Why Edmonton will win: This is a team that has overcome all of the odds as the first #8 seed to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals since the NHL adopted this current playoff format in 1994. The Oilers are clearly on a roll. Roloson is looking virtually untouchable. The leadership of guys like Smyth, Pronger and Michael Peca is making this a team that is hard to beat. Horcoff and Pisani have become superstars during these playoffs.

Why Edmonton will not win: Remember the 1996 Florida Panthers, 1998 Washington Capitals, 2002 Hurricanes, 2003 Mighty Ducks, and 2004 Flames? We’ve seen the Cinderella team make it so many times, and it never works out. Too much is being made of the amount of time off that the Oilers have enjoyed after eliminating the Ducks quickly. Just ask the Devils if that extra time off helped them in their semifinal series with the Hurricanes. The Oilers have not played a team of this caliber since its upset of Red Wings in the first round. Can the Oilers really do this again?

Why Carolina will win: Balance in net with Ward and Gerber. The Canes have been a dominant, consistent team all year. With the exception of their easy series with the Devils, the Canes have faced adversity against the Canadiens and Sabres, and have come out on top each time. The playoff experience of their players—Weight, Stillman, Brind’Amour, Willams, and Mark Recchi—cannot be denied. Eric Staal has proven that he will be one of the best forwards in the league for years to come.

Why Carolina will not win: Could there be an emotional let-down after a fierce seven-game series with the Sabres? Both Ward and, especially, Gerber, have had a few rocky games at one time or another during these playoffs. What happens if they both go bad at the same time? While the Canes have had the best power play in the playoffs, the Oilers have had the best penalty kill. This battle could go the Oilers’ way. Also, despite the 8-4 record during 12 one-goal games during these playoffs, the Canes’ tend to tread on dangerous ice.

My pick: Carolina over Edmonton in five games