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A Reader Weighs In

By Bridgeport Jake
Discuss the French Open on our Discussion Board

MEN

1. Gustavo Kuerten. An unorthodox pick, to be sure. You expect this guy, just out of hip surgery, to go seven best-of-five matches and somehow come out on top? Expect, no. But given how wide-open the men's side is for this tournament, there is no clear-cut favorite (not even a clear-cut quarterfinalist). This guy LOVES court central. He knows how to win at Roland Garros. He's the only current player who's done it more than once. To me, that makes him the favorite, if barely.

2. Andre Agassi. Another former champion, this guy won in Rome and then (smartly) pulled out of Berlin to focus on his game. He's won two masters series events this year, and has won at RG in the past. He's in the best shape of his life (which is saying something) and is really, really hungry to show everyone he can get back to the top. In fact, the only reason I'm not putting him at the top is because, despite his past successes, he seems to do best when he's the underdog - when he has something to prove. In Paris, given the vagaries of this year's clay court season, he'll be front & center. Can he handle the pressure (he
couldn't last year)?

3. Tommy Haas. Tommy is smart. He had a great showing in Rome, beating Mirnyi, Chela, Grosjean, Moya & Roddick all in straight sets, but didn't jinx himself by winning the finals against Agassi. Then at home, he got a couple of matches under his belt, but lost his third-round match to the other Tommy (Robredo). Simply put, the German/French double is nearly impossible, unless you're Gustavo Kuerten in 2000 or Ivan Lendl in 1987. Sorry, but neither Haas nor Federer is that guy (yet). Better to lose in Hamburg & win in Paris, right? Although he hasn't won a title this year, he was in the semis at Australia and won his first Masters Series title last year at Stuttgart.
Germany's been begging for a reason to follow tennis since Becker & Graf retired. Haas could be the guy.

4. Carlos Moya. Can you believe this guy has only gotten past the fourth round at RG once (in 1999 when he won)?! Regardless, the guy's got talent, and seems to be healthy. He's had a good clay-court season without totally wearing himself out.

5. Roger Federer. Dominated Safin & beat Kuerten in Germany. Beat Hewitt & Henman in Miami. Wins over Safin & Kafelnikov in Davis Cup. A natural tennis talent with an all-court game. If he hadn't won Hamburg, I'd be much more likely to pick him...

6. Juan Carlos Ferrero. He went from odds-on favorite after Monte Carlo to "say, didn't you used to be the Mosquito?" after bombing out bad in Rome & Hamburg. Last year's finalist is supposedly the best clay-courter in the world. Dude's out of the Top 10 like that! Dude can't make it to the third round in any tourney! Dude's confidence HAS to be fragile. But again, nobody's really stepped it up this month, and he's proved himself in the past. Oh, and he REALLY needs those points from last year's RG...

7. Marat Safin. Would be #1 in the world, and already the winner of multiple Slams, if he cared even 1/10 as much as Lleyton about winning matches. But he doesn't. Instead? He's #2 in the world, #1 in the champions race, the winner of one slam, and a real threat here. The world is a funny place. Or maybe it's just Russia (insert your own Kafelnikov/Kournikova/Dementieva dig here).

8. Alex Corretja. Oh, Alex! Everyone loves you! Nobody wants you to be the dreaded "best player not to have won a major"! Please win here! You've gotten to the finals twice, and have a run of four straight quarters-or-better French Opens. You beat Sampras on grass! You may think you're old, but you're totally not. Surprise us all, Alex. Win RG!

9. Lleyton Hewitt. Should be higher, but has never won a tourney on the red stuff. Can beat most players, but really strong Spanish players prove too tough for him (Moya this year, Ferrero & Portas last year). However, a semifinal appearance is not out of the question. Like Agassi, give him a few years of learning how to play on clay before he can lay claim to being title-worthy.

10. Gaston Gaudio. 16-2 on clay this year. Titles in Mallorca and Barcelona (plus two Davis Cup wins). Has had plenty of time to rest after skipping Hamburg and getting bounced in the first round of Rome by Ferreira. As the lowest seed, he's a huge longshot, but his showings to date made me add him to this list.

WOMEN

1. Serena Williams. She can beat anyone on any surface, and has shown it time & time again. She's learning how to play on clay like the computer in War Games learned how to play Thermonuclear War. She's extremely hungry (hell, if I'm not mistaken, she has an outside shot at #1 here). Barring injury, she'll definitely win at least one of the last three grand slam events. Why not here? (Best possible reason: the last woman to pull off the Italian-French double was Monica Seles in 1990. It's a jinx!!)

2. Jennifer Capriati. Yes, her results have been uneven lately. No, she can't feel good about recent losses to Henin & Serena (to whom she's lost the last four times she's played). Yes, she's won only one non-Slam tourney since September 2000. No, her head can't be in the right place after Fed Cup and given all the pressure she's under as a precarious #1. But how can you count her out? She's been brilliant in the last five Slams, losing twice in the semifinals. And face it - who thought she could do it last year?

3. Justine Henin. Is she ready to become the star all her fans think she should be? Her early-season struggles made people wonder whether she was wasting her time tinkering with her game. But winning the German Open, and beating her compatriot Clijsters in Rome have given her the confidence she needs to win the big ones. If it weren't for her inconsistency and quickly fading inexperience, she'd be the favorite here.

4. Venus Williams. She's played two clay court tournaments this year, winning one (third-set tiebreak v. Henin) and getting to the finals of the other (losing a third-set tiebreak to Clijsters). She's won four of the past seven Slams. She has the heart of a champion. She's 4-0 versus Capriati. Yes, there's that first-round exit last year at the French. But that could just be motivation for her. Oh, and she might be injured.

5. Kim Clijsters. She was so close to winning the French last year she could taste it. She's a more consistent player than Henin and has a winning record against the Belgian #2. So why not rate her chances higher? An injury has slowed her, and she's only made one final this year (the win over Venus at Betty Barclay). Assuming she's well rested, though, she has to be considered at least as much of a threat as Venus.

6. Amelie Mauresmo. She knows how to play on this stuff. She has none of the pressure that she did after last year. And for the first time in her career, she's coming off two straight quarterfinal appearances in grand slams. By all rights she should be a top eight player. Instead she's down to #12. A scary quarterfinal for one of the top eight seeds, to be sure.

7. Monica Seles. Two weeks just seems like too much to ask of MS. Especially when each match gets tougher and tougher. But she's one of the most consistent Grand Slammer in history (nine singles titles, including 7 of 9 at one point; since she returned from the stabbing, has reached the quarters in 17 of 21 slams she's played in). In this race against time, Monica's best chance for a final big-time win is now.

8. Iva Majoli. She'll be a low seed, but a seed nonetheless. She won a Tier One title already this year, on clay no less. She's a former champion who's trying to make a comeback. Let's put it this way ... in a tour that's got a huge gap between the top players and those below, she's the most dangerous of the "those belows."

9. Jelena Dokic. She's playing AGAIN this week in Strasbourg. Jelena, you're killing us (not to mention yourself). She's been hurt all year. Still, clay is proving to be a strong surface for her, with two titles in the past two years (including last year's Italian). Wimbledon is "her" tournament, though. I don't see her making it past the quarters at RG.

10. Anna Kournikova. She has to win sometime. Besides, if she shows up in the finals on center court, her opponent will probably die of shock, giving AK the crown.

May 24, 2002