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MEN
1. Gustavo Kuerten. An
unorthodox pick, to be sure. You expect this guy, just out of hip
surgery, to go seven best-of-five matches and somehow come out on
top? Expect, no. But given how wide-open the men's side is for
this tournament, there is no clear-cut favorite (not even a
clear-cut quarterfinalist). This guy LOVES court central. He knows
how to win at Roland Garros. He's the only current player who's
done it more than once. To me, that makes him the favorite, if
barely.
2. Andre Agassi. Another
former champion, this guy won in Rome and then (smartly) pulled
out of Berlin to focus on his game. He's won two masters series
events this year, and has won at RG in the past. He's in the best
shape of his life (which is saying something) and is really,
really hungry to show everyone he can get back to the top. In
fact, the only reason I'm not putting him at the top is because,
despite his past successes, he seems to do best when he's the
underdog - when he has something to prove. In Paris, given the
vagaries of this year's clay court season, he'll be front &
center. Can he handle the pressure (he
couldn't last year)?
3. Tommy Haas. Tommy is
smart. He had a great showing in Rome, beating Mirnyi, Chela,
Grosjean, Moya & Roddick all in straight sets, but didn't jinx
himself by winning the finals against Agassi. Then at home, he got
a couple of matches under his belt, but lost his third-round match
to the other Tommy (Robredo). Simply put, the German/French double
is nearly impossible, unless you're Gustavo Kuerten in 2000 or
Ivan Lendl in 1987. Sorry, but neither Haas nor Federer is that
guy (yet). Better to lose in Hamburg & win in Paris, right?
Although he hasn't won a title this year, he was in the semis at
Australia and won his first Masters Series title last year at
Stuttgart.
Germany's been begging for a reason to follow tennis since Becker
& Graf retired. Haas could be the guy.
4. Carlos Moya. Can you
believe this guy has only gotten past the fourth round at RG once
(in 1999 when he won)?! Regardless, the guy's got talent, and
seems to be healthy. He's had a good clay-court season without
totally wearing himself out.
5. Roger Federer. Dominated
Safin & beat Kuerten in Germany. Beat Hewitt & Henman in Miami.
Wins over Safin & Kafelnikov in Davis Cup. A natural tennis talent
with an all-court game. If he hadn't won Hamburg, I'd be much more
likely to pick him...
6. Juan Carlos Ferrero. He
went from odds-on favorite after Monte Carlo to "say, didn't you
used to be the Mosquito?" after bombing out bad in Rome & Hamburg.
Last year's finalist is supposedly the best clay-courter in the
world. Dude's out of the Top 10 like that! Dude can't make it to
the third round in any tourney! Dude's confidence HAS to be
fragile. But again, nobody's really stepped it up this month, and
he's proved himself in the past. Oh, and he REALLY needs those
points from last year's RG...
7. Marat Safin. Would be #1
in the world, and already the winner of multiple Slams, if he
cared even 1/10 as much as Lleyton about winning matches. But he
doesn't. Instead? He's #2 in the world, #1 in the champions race,
the winner of one slam, and a real threat here. The world is a
funny place. Or maybe it's just Russia (insert your own
Kafelnikov/Kournikova/Dementieva dig here).
8. Alex Corretja. Oh, Alex!
Everyone loves you! Nobody wants you to be the dreaded "best
player not to have won a major"! Please win here! You've gotten to
the finals twice, and have a run of four straight
quarters-or-better French Opens. You beat Sampras on grass! You
may think you're old, but you're totally not. Surprise us all,
Alex. Win RG!
9. Lleyton Hewitt. Should be
higher, but has never won a tourney on the red stuff. Can beat
most players, but really strong Spanish players prove too tough
for him (Moya this year, Ferrero & Portas last year). However, a
semifinal appearance is not out of the question. Like Agassi, give
him a few years of learning how to play on clay before he can lay
claim to being title-worthy.
10. Gaston Gaudio. 16-2 on
clay this year. Titles in Mallorca and Barcelona (plus two Davis
Cup wins). Has had plenty of time to rest after skipping Hamburg
and getting bounced in the first round of Rome by Ferreira. As the
lowest seed, he's a huge longshot, but his showings to date made
me add him to this list. |
WOMEN
1. Serena Williams. She can
beat anyone on any surface, and has shown it time & time again.
She's learning how to play on clay like the computer in War Games
learned how to play Thermonuclear War. She's extremely hungry
(hell, if I'm not mistaken, she has an outside shot at #1 here).
Barring injury, she'll definitely win at least one of the last
three grand slam events. Why not here? (Best possible reason: the
last woman to pull off the Italian-French double was Monica Seles
in 1990. It's a jinx!!)
2. Jennifer Capriati. Yes,
her results have been uneven lately. No, she can't feel good about
recent losses to Henin & Serena (to whom she's lost the last four
times she's played). Yes, she's won only one non-Slam tourney
since September 2000. No, her head can't be in the right place
after Fed Cup and given all the pressure she's under as a
precarious #1. But how can you count her out? She's been brilliant
in the last five Slams, losing twice in the semifinals. And face
it - who thought she could do it last year?
3. Justine Henin. Is she
ready to become the star all her fans think she should be? Her
early-season struggles made people wonder whether she was wasting
her time tinkering with her game. But winning the German Open, and
beating her compatriot Clijsters in Rome have given her the
confidence she needs to win the big ones. If it weren't for her
inconsistency and quickly fading inexperience, she'd be the
favorite here.
4. Venus Williams. She's
played two clay court tournaments this year, winning one
(third-set tiebreak v. Henin) and getting to the finals of the
other (losing a third-set tiebreak to Clijsters). She's won four
of the past seven Slams. She has the heart of a champion. She's
4-0 versus Capriati. Yes, there's that first-round exit last year
at the French. But that could just be motivation for her. Oh, and
she might be injured.
5. Kim Clijsters. She was so
close to winning the French last year she could taste it. She's a
more consistent player than Henin and has a winning record against
the Belgian #2. So why not rate her chances higher? An injury has
slowed her, and she's only made one final this year (the win over
Venus at Betty Barclay). Assuming she's well rested, though, she
has to be considered at least as much of a threat as Venus.
6. Amelie Mauresmo. She
knows how to play on this stuff. She has none of the pressure that
she did after last year. And for the first time in her career,
she's coming off two straight quarterfinal appearances in grand
slams. By all rights she should be a top eight player. Instead
she's down to #12. A scary quarterfinal for one of the top eight
seeds, to be sure.
7. Monica Seles. Two weeks
just seems like too much to ask of MS. Especially when each match
gets tougher and tougher. But she's one of the most consistent
Grand Slammer in history (nine singles titles, including 7 of 9 at
one point; since she returned from the stabbing, has reached the
quarters in 17 of 21 slams she's played in). In this race against
time, Monica's best chance for a final big-time win is now.
8. Iva Majoli. She'll be a
low seed, but a seed nonetheless. She won a Tier One title already
this year, on clay no less. She's a former champion who's trying
to make a comeback. Let's put it this way ... in a tour that's got
a huge gap between the top players and those below, she's the most
dangerous of the "those belows."
9. Jelena Dokic. She's
playing AGAIN this week in Strasbourg. Jelena, you're killing us
(not to mention yourself). She's been hurt all year. Still, clay
is proving to be a strong surface for her, with two titles in the
past two years (including last year's Italian). Wimbledon is "her"
tournament, though. I don't see her making it past the quarters at
RG.
10. Anna Kournikova. She has
to win sometime. Besides, if she shows up in the finals on center
court, her opponent will probably die of shock, giving AK the
crown. |