Justine Henin’s brilliant play notwithstanding, 2004 has
started with a bit of a limp. And a crick in the shoulder. A
little bit of a stomach flu, too. In all fairness, injuries
have impacted the WTA tour every bit as much as any wicked
forehand or powerful serve. Serena and Jenny were forced to
sit out of the Australian Open, where Outsports favorite
Amelie Mauresmo had to withdraw from a quarterfinal match
due to injury. With the sport’s elite players not at their
peak, or not playing at all, can Justine Henin run the table
and earn the elusive Grand Slam?
Well, clearly, the diminutive Belgian is the No. 1 player in
the world. With Venus Williams ailing, Lindsay Davenport
prone to wilt in big matches, and Kim Clijsters only
recently able to really press her countrywoman in Slam event
finals, it looks as if there’s little to stop Henin. She
plays well on all surfaces, having reached the semifinals or
better at all four Grand Slam events. Maybe now that all
players are gunning for her, the other “big names” will find
a little breathing room to find and retune their own games.
Until such a time, the tour is Henin’s for the taking.
Here’s how we see the competition stacking up against her.
Justine Henin-Hardenne – she’s No. 1! See above.
Kim Clijsters – with a ton of points to defend, Kim’s
got some pressure on her shoulders. Still, she’s been in
three Slam event finals now and did just take the world No.
1 to three sets in Australia. Until others on the tour are
able to really bring it, it’s up to Kim to keep Justine
honest.
Amelie Mauresmo – oh, what a semifinal it could have
been! Mauresmo has bounced back from injuries fairly well in
years past, so we’re hoping she’s able to return for a
strong campaign during the spring clay court season, where
her firepower and resolve match up nicely vs. Justine’s
game.
Venus Williams – after playing very few events in
2003, Venus can actually jump back up in the rankings by
playing just a few more events and playing well. Question
is, does she want to? She looked hungry Down Under, like she
really wanted to win, and she’s added Tokyo to her schedule
already. If Venus brings some intensity into the clay court
season, all of the elements of her game should be coming
together nicely for Wimbledon and the hardcourt season that
follows.
Lindsay Davenport – lost two finals she absolutely
should have won last year, at Amelia Island against Elena
Dementieva and at Indian Wells vs. Clijsters. Lindsay needs
to close the gaps in those tight matches. She can start of
strong, but in the past several years finishing has been
hard. She and her coaches need to work on physical and
emotional endurance. If those pieces fall into place,
Davenport, who is in the best shape of her career, really
can produce some “surprises”.
Anastasia Myskina – fun to watch if only for her
temper. She could easily be ranked as high as No. 4 here,
but with her relatively weak second serve and some big
points to defend, Anastasia is looking at a make or break
year. To her credit: she just completed back-to-back
quarterfinal runs at the Australian, and in 2003 she also
reached the US Open quarters. Myskina won consecutive titles
in the fall of 2003, also, beating Henin and Mauresmo in
finals.
Ai Sugiyama – even though she may find it difficult
to defend her State Farm title in Scottsdale, the talented
Japanese has already picked up one trophy in 2004 (she won
the Gold Coast Australian Open warm-up event). We look for
Ai to make it to her first career quarterfinal at a Grand
Slam event this year.
Maria Sharapova – at 6 ft tall, young Maria still has
room to grow into her tennis game. And that’s scary,
considering that this winner of smaller events in Japan and
Quebec City reached the forth round of Wimbledon just her
first time playing and played a pretty good match vs.
Myskina in Oz.
Alicia Molik – played phenomenally at the Hopman Cup,
where she really mixed it up with Kim Clijsters. After
injuring herself in a match vs. Daniela Hantuchova, Molik
composed herself for a run to the forth round of the
Australian, where she lost a very respectful 5 and 5 to
Mauresmo. Last year, Molik won an Australian Open tune up
and reached two other finals, both on clay. Another
impressive tidbit: Molik reached two doubles finals last
year, partnering with none other than Martina Navratilova on
grass at Birmingham and taking women’s dubs team
extraordinaire Ruano Pascal/Suarez to a tie-break at a US
Open warm up.
Serena Williams & Jennifer Capriati – while many
would suggest Serena would have an easier time reasserting
herself upon return, seeing Venus struggle might do a Whammy
on Serena’s psyche. If she comes back too confident, Justine
– or even Kim, for that matter – might really take advantage
of Serena’s rustiness. Whereas Serena’s obstacles to a
successful return are more mental, Jennifer Capriati’s are a
bit more technical. She plays hard down the stretch, but
better second serves and sharper mental endurance could mean
the difference in tight matches this year. |
Roger Federer’s title run at
the Australian Open was incredible, not only for the playing
form he displayed, but for the tough competition he faced.
With negatively lopsided records against nemeses Lleyton
Hewitt and David Nalbandian, Federer acquitted himself
spectacularly despite being without a coach! Simply amazing.
Before Marat Safin’s scorching run to the final, the big
stories on the men’s side were Andy Roddick as No. 1 and
Andre Agassi, as living history. With Federer starting to
distance himself from the crowd, and players like Safin,
Lleyton Hewitt, and Carlos Moya getting their groove back,
2004 stands to be a truly exciting year.
Roger Federer – we’re particularly interested in
seeing how he prepares for the French Open; a solid clay
court player, Federer disappointed many tennis fans by
crashing out of the French Open in just the first round last
year. He should do better in 2004, and solidify his grasp on
the No. 1 ranking in the process. After beating big servers
like Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick, and Mark Philippoussis on
grass, it’s hard to imagine him being dethroned at
Wimbledon. Hopefully, the best is yet to come from Federer.
Lleyton Hewitt – with very few points to defend from
2003, Hewitt can begin an ascent in the rankings by filling
out his schedule a bit more. His Davis Cup heroics last
fall, plus a competitive run of matches at the Hopman Cup,
and one title under his belt already in 2004 give every
indication that Hewitt will be back to his old form,
grinding out matches to the very last ball. A feisty Hewitt
come back to renew rivalries with Federer and Andy Roddick
is great for the sport.
Carlos Moya – the winner of Chennai and a finalist in
Sydney, Moya didn’t get to play the Australian because of
injury. D’oh! The Spaniard reached the quarters of the
French in 2003 and won three ATP events last year, as well.
Before his injury, he was looking big, fit, and focused.
We’re keeping an excited eye on him in 2004.
Juan Carlos Ferrero – the reigning French Open
champion and US Open finalist went deep into the draw in
Australia, too. There’s honestly not much room for
improvement in Ferrero’s game, so here’s to hoping he’s
capable of playing consistently excellent tennis!
Andre Agassi – OK, here’s the deal: ‘Dre will pull
out of at least two events, under-perform in a couple of
others, but then have a great match with a Federer or Hewitt
or El Ayaoui at one of the top level tournaments that’s
televised. The buzz generated from his televised appearances
will create a creeping expectation that he might, just
might, win Wimbledon, or the US Open. It’s hard to call
against him, especially seeing how he waxed Thomas Enqvist
and the likes in Australia. What Juan Carlos Ferrero and
Marat Safin have shown us, though, is that there are soft
spots in the King ‘Dre’s armor. Can he fix them to make some
sort of history this year?
Marat Safin – is he back? Does he have two more weeks
of terrific tennis left in the tank? Let’s hope his
confidence has been bolstered by recent events, and that he
continues to focus on improving his game and ranking. We’ve
noted often that Marat plays magnificent clay court tennis
and hope his form holds all the way to Roland Garros, where
rematch with Federer would be a sight to behold.
Andy Roddick – last year, Roddick didn’t play poorly,
really, against Federer in the Wimbledon semifinals. It’ll
be hard to surpass, or even reach, that effort in 2004,
which suggests that Roddick may be pressing or stressed
heading into the US Open to defend his title. Our advice:
work on the ground game to make a respectable showing at the
French and focus on the Tennis Masters Series to maintain
confidence and positive momentum throughout the year.
Paradorn Srichaphan – has shown few signs of fading
after steady success the past several years. He made the
Chennai final to start 2004 off well, then beat Gustavo
Kuerten before taking on Andre Agassi in the Round of 16 in
Melbourne. Paradorn won two hardcourt titles in 2003, and
also gained the Indianapolis final. He played very well in
Miami, too, and have a hunch that something special can
happen for him at a Masters Series tournament or another
relatively “big” event.
David Nalbandian – only at No. 9 because consecutive
losses to Federer are disappointing, especially at this
year’s Australian Open. Nalbandian had just beaten both
Roddick and Agassi at an exhibition, so many had high hopes
for him. Even sportswriters have commented that there’s
really nothing “big” about David’s game. “He just does
everything pretty well.” If that’s true, the big man better
get on the ball and show the tennis world what’s he’s really
made of! Winless in 2003, Nalbandian’s incredible knack for
getting pretty far at the majors might begin to wane as
up-and-comers like Rafael Nadal and Filippo Volandri
continue to actualize their potential.
Mardy Fish & Robbie Ginepri – winless so far in 2004,
Fish seems an unlikely choice for the list, especially since
Ginepri was able to power his way to the forth round Down
Under and also enjoy a solid run at the exhibitions during
the off-season. It’s likely that Ginepri’s strength and
improving serve will earn him some strong results in 2004.
Fish is the more natively talented, we think: an even better
serve, a natural and athletic presence, and more
versatility. Since Fish has consistently gone further in
more competitive draws, it will be interesting to see which
American has the more consistent results this year |
