Tennis 

U.S. Open Preview

By The B Man
Outsports.com

The United States Open. Wow…This is it. What we’ve really been waiting for all year. The U.S. *bleepin’* Open. So much is on the line: credibility, braggin’ rights, the resolution to a couple of grudge matches, and perhaps a swan song or two. Here are the storylines we’ll be following: 

GRAND FINALE

Will Andre Agassi and Lindsay Davenport retire at the end of the season? And if they do, can they go out in high style by winning the Flushing singles titles?!?  

Each player has been hounded with questions of retirement all year, but both have shown flashes of brilliance in the past months. By beating, in succession, Carlos Moya, Andy Roddick, and Lleyton Hewitt, Agassi won the Cincinnati event and ended a title draught. Davenport has been even more impressive, beating nearly every possible Russian and both Williams sisters this summer en route to no less than four (4!!!) titles. 

Both players come to NYC with some momentum, then, but both have been stuck with particularly nasty draws. Davenport is scheduled to meet Venus Williams in round 4, Nastya Meanskina in the quarters, and world no. 1 Justine Henin-Hardenne in the semi’s. Agassi’s draw is even uglier: an opener against a hard-hitting Robby Ginepri, then a final 16 match vs. Olympics Hero Nic Massu, and a quarterfinal vs. the phenomenal world no. 1 Roger Federer. Ouch. 

If the Olympics have taught us anything, though, it’s that anything can happen. Oh, and it’s that sports is rife with drama. Perhaps these two Americans, Andre and Lindsay, will add credence to these truisms at this year’s US Open. Wouldn’t a dramatic run to the US Open be the perfect way to finish an illustrious career? 

DEFENSE! DEFENSE!

So what about last year’s winners, Justine Henin-Hardenne and Andy Roddick? Can they successfully defend their titles? Well, Yes and No.

Yes, because Justine’s draw is beautiful: she really won’t be challenged until the quarters, where she might face Sharapova, who is struggling a bit to follow-up her Wimbledon success, or Kuznetsova, who has so far choked when given big opportunities to advance at majors. Her semifinal opponent is likely to be Myskina, Davenport, or V. Williams, all of whom will need to scrap and fight to earn their semifinal berth. So it looks on paper like Justine has a great chance at making the final. Since losing to Venus in the 2001 Wimbledon final, Justine has won every other Slam event final in which she has appeared. Look out, Ladies.

Yes for Roddick because he’s on the opposite side of the draw from his main nemeses Federer and Agassi. Disappointing losses this year are bound to stoke his competitive fires, and good coaching from Brad Gilbert should have Roddick better prepared – especially mentally – for a tricky 5 set final, especially if it’s a rematch of the exciting but ultimately disappointing Wimbledon classic. 

No, for both, because Justine may have peaked too soon by winning the Olympics, and because Roddick’s losses may be indicative of deeper troubles with his game. We’ve seen the “peak too soon” phenomenon before: Serena won her first event back on tour this year, but has only reached two finals since; in recent years, Kim Clijsters and Amelie Mauresmo have both dominated the tournaments leading up to Slam events, but have failed to achieve a Grand Slam breakthrough. The question for Justine: after Athens, does she have anything left for Flushing?  

With Roddick, the questions are more about the nature of his game: is there anything left to Roddick’s arsenal if you’re able to break down, or outlast, his serve? At The Olympics, Fernando Gonzalez proved that a big game off the ground can give A-Rod trouble. Agassi’s return of serve and own solid service game gave Andy trouble just a week or so before The Olympics, too. And big servers like Mario Ancic, Ivan Ljubicic, and Max Mirnyi may not have beaten Roddick, but they did take him to the absolute brink. The point: Roddick is definitely vulnerable. 

BELGIUM, ARGENTINA, RUSSIA, CHILE… NEXT?

Two Belgians played for the women’s single title in Australia. In France, two Argentines clashed for the men’s trophy while two women from Russia met in the women’s championship match. At Wimbledon, another Russian was the last woman standing. And at the Olympics, the men of Chile dominated, earning singles and doubles gold medals, plus a bronze. 

We do seem to get into this “nation pride” thing, so it’s only a matter of time before someone asks aloud: Who’s got next?!?  

Here’s a crazy idea: The United States of America. Seriously, it’s been a while since the US really had some weight and credibility at the Slams. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Serena and Andy were in the Wimbly finals, but with all due respect, Serena got punked and Andy wuz outplayed. NOT a great US showing. 

Maybe some of the women’s basketball/softball/volleyball glow will rub off on some of the US singles players (how, I don’t know, but work with me here) and we’ll see a US vs. US singles final featuring Davenport vs. Capriati/S. Williams.  

THE DRAW

The US Open Draw itself has to be one of the hottest stories heading into the event. Last minute withdrawals notwithstanding, there are some incredible first, second, third, and forth round match-ups on tap. We love/hate the draws of:

Juan Ignacio Chela. Surprisingly successful on the hard courts, Chela has outstanding head-to-head records against everyone in his immediate draw, including Tommy Haas, the comeback story of the year. Interestingly, Chela has beaten Haas twice in 2004. With Nalbandian in dubious form, Chela could sneak into the quarters and potentially face Hewitt, who he beat at Indian Wells in the spring.

Amelie Mauresmo. Perhaps the easiest draw in the women’s event. Amelie should dominate her matches en route to the quarters, where she will almost certainly face Zvonareva, who she leads 4-0 in career meetings, or Dementieva, who beat her at Roland Garros. If Elena does make it this far, look for Amelie to exact sweet revenge and earn her second consecutive Grand Slam event semifinal.

Taylor Dent and Mardy Fish. The unexpected US Olympic heroes got shafted in the draw. Nicolas Massu looms early on in Dent’s draw. Massu beat Dent in the Olympic semifinals, 6-1 in the second. Fish’s draw isn’t much better: it includes Max Mirnyi (who gave Fish a tough match in Athens), Ivo Karlovic (who beat Mardy at the Australian), and Tim Henman. Fish has had tough luck against other big servers this year, so these are probably names he really didn’t want to see in his draw. D’oh!

Venus Williams. Poor girl. Chanda Rubin in the third round (could be an upset), Lindsay Davenport in the forth round (Davenport beat Venus this summer in a tight Stanford final), Justine H-H in the semi’s, and then a pick your poison final (possible poisons: Serena, Amelie, Jenny C.). If Venus does win this event, it will be her greatest Slam title run to date, if not ever.