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Role Play
2007 Australian Open
Preview
By
Wyman Meers
Major
tennis plotlines stay in tact as new season begins Down
Under.
The ranking
system in tennis is obsolete. Endless depth in the men’s
field and endless injuries to the top women have rendered
points and tournament results inefficient in predicting the
outcome of a match or forecasting the eventual champion of
any given tournament.
The tennis
world is no longer quantifiable as a numerical hierarchy,
but rather it is now divided into a yin-and-yang cast of
characters, a perfect balance of sporting possibilities
where players are defined not only by their results but also
by the actions of their peers: attacker balanced by
counter-puncher; drama queens offset by mature
professionals; healthy mirroring unhealthy; and the dominant
wrestling with the submissive. Even more so, the men’s ATP
and women’s WTA professional tours currently complement one
another through their diversity. The boys are ruled by one
seemingly immovable force while the leapfrogging ladies are
frenetic with change.
So too is the
planet itself divided into hemispherical halves. And
although winter is barely underway in the northern half, a
new season of professional tennis has already begun on the
other side of the globe.
Who’s
Your Daddy?
Right now,
the only number that matters in the men’s rankings is No. 1:
Roger Federer. Federer is defending champion in Australia
and will be looking to add a 10th Grand Slam title to his
increasingly storied career tally.
One can
rightfully speculate that the slower, high-bouncing hard
courts in Melbourne are not the best surface for his game,
but the fact of the matter is that there is not a court
surface around that stops Federer from winning. Federer is
more vulnerable on the slowest surfaces, such as clay, but
that has more to do with the clay enhancing his opponents’
strengths than it does with inhibiting his own gifts; the
man can play – and win – on anything. The question is the
same at every tournament throughout the year: can anyone
challenge Federer for the title? In most cases, the short
answer to that question is no. Nonetheless, percentages and
human nature expect Federer to falter sooner or later and
Rebound Ace courts may not be the best fit for Roger
Federer’s game. The red clay of Paris notwithstanding, the
other men on the ATP Tour have their best chance to steal a
major title from Federer’s clutches in Australia.
When
searching for a challenger to Federer’s reign, most
prognosticators point to French Open champion and
second-ranked Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard’s muscular,
topspin-heavy game is well-suited to the rubbery court
surface, which grips the ball and allows for excessive spin.
He will be a nightmare for opponents to face over a best of
five sets match.
Nadal’s youth
and endurance may also be key advantages in the extreme
summer temperatures Down Under; however, he is already
struggling early in the season with hamstring and thigh
strains. Nadal followed up his 2006 French Open victory by
making a shocking run to the Wimbledon final, but his
subsequent results have been less-than-impressive. At full
flight, Nadal’s game shames and bullies his opponents, but
the physical and emotional energy he expends in the process
may already be showing in his results. If Rafa finds his
form and somehow makes his way to the ultimate round to face
Federer, he is certainly capable of dethroning the champ.
Yet a showdown with Federer seems unlikely if he continues
to allow lower-ranked opponents and injuries to push him
into defensive positions behind the baseline.
Federer wants
to continue his march towards history with a win in
Australia, the first leg of tennis’s Grand Slam (in which
one player wins all four majors titles in a calendar year).
Nadal wants to prove he can earn a major title outside of
Paris and shed his clay-courter label once and for all.
Nothing would be more exciting for men’s tennis than for the
top two players in the world to continue their burgeoning
rivalry and face off in the Australian Open final,
particularly if Nadal can win, for Federer has faced
precious little resistance in the past six months.
The three men
who follow Federer and Nadal to fill out the tournament’s
top five seeds are all serious talents looking for a
breakthrough in a big event: Nikolay Davydenko, Ivan
Ljubicic, and James Blake each possess the speed, stamina,
and weapons necessary to win a Slam. Yet they have all
underachieved in the biggest moments of their careers.
Blake, in particular, could have a good showing if the draw
his kind to him. Like so many of his peers, Blake does not
want to be in Roger Federer’s quarter. Still, at present,
Blake is a better hard court player than Ljubicic, Davydenko,
or Nadal. If he keeps his emotions in check and mind
focused, the American is solidly number three on the list of
title contenders despite his fifth-seeded status.
Blake’s
compatriot Andy Roddick is still looking to reestablish
himself among the very top players in the world, regardless
of his run to the U.S. Open final late last summer under the
tutelage of tennis legend Jimmy Connors. Roddick is one of
a generation of elite players to have been stifled by the
brilliance of Roger Federer and he too must hope to avoid
Federer’s quarter of the draw. Should that happen, his big
serve and powerful forehand have been tools for past success
in this event.
A few other
seeded players to keep an eye on are No. 11 Marcos Baghdatis,
the engaging Cypriot who reached the final in Australia a
year ago; No. 14 Novak Djokovic, a rapidly-rising young gun
from Serbia and Montenegro who should finish the year in the
Top 10; No. 15 Andy Murray, also looking to take the next
step and move into the world’s uppermost tier of players;
and No. 19 Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt is a two-time major
champion, a former world number one, and was runner up two
years ago. His motivation seems to have waned in the last
year or so, be it from marriage or legal battles off the
court, but by all accounts he is hungry to have one last run
as the hometown hero.
The man who
conquered Hewitt in the 2004 final, Russia’s Marat Safin,
worked hard to rebuild his game last year and that effort
culminated in leading the Russians to a Davis Cup Victory
over Argentina to conclude the 2006 tennis season. That
success may spur the erratic Russian to another successful
run in Melbourne. Safin can also take confidence from the
knowledge that he dismissed Federer in the 2005 semifinals
en route to the title.
Xavier
Malisse, another extremely talented underachiever, started
off the year by beating Rafael Nadal in the semifinals of a
warm-up event in Chennai, India. The skillful Belgian has
long had the ability to compete with the world’s best
players, but poor heath and lack of fitness seem to be his
inevitable downfall in major tournaments. A flashy shot
maker with a boost of self-belief after winning his second
career title, Malisse is sure to make life difficult for a
contender or two in the early rounds.
Mother,
May I?
While Roger
Federer keeps an ever-tightening grip on the men’s tour, the
WTA continues to play musical chairs atop its rankings due
to off-court dramas. A new woman seems to move to the front
of the line each week. Last year’s Australian Open runner-up
and the current world No. 1, Justine Henin-Hardenne, has
already withdrawn from the championship due to the
dissolution of her marriage. Henin-Hardenne is a former
champion in Australia, as is American Lindsay Davenport, who
had originally committed to competing in the event but
subsequently announced her immediate retirement in the
off-season because she is expecting her first child.
The
family-induced withdrawals of Davenport and Henin-Hardenne
clear the way for defending champion Amelie Mauresmo to
prove that her victory at last year’s Australian Open was no
accident of good fortune. In 2006, Mauresmo won three of her
seven matches in Melbourne when opponents retired before
completion. The most infamous of these withdrawals came in
the final versus Henin-Hardenne, yet Mauresmo’s confidence
soared afterwards and she went on to win Wimbledon. A
second major title confirmed that Mauresmo is a viable force
in the Slams. Nonetheless, if Amelie is to continue winning
majors this year, defending that breakthrough title in Oz is
likely her best bet.
Yet
soon-to-be number one and reigning US Open winner Maria
Sharapova has other ideas. The victory in New York renewed
Maria’s confidence and her power game can certainly win on
Australia’s hard courts. Sharapova is younger and fresher
than her peers at the top of women’s tennis and many pundits
feel as though she is headed towards reestablishing order to
the women’s game. As such, Sharapova is perhaps the de-facto
favorite heading into the Australian Open.
Another woman
who will benefit from absent competition is Belgium’s Kim
Clijsters, the former U.S. Open champion who insists that
2007 will be her final year on tour. Thusly, this event
would be Kim’s final Australian Open, a tournament where the
fans have given her much support due to her one-time
engagement to Lleyton Hewitt. Clijsters is the most
injury-prone woman on tour these days, but a hungry Kim will
want to do well by her Australian fans and prove in the
process that she is no one Slam wonder.
Three-time
Australian Open champion Martina Hingis made a successful
return to tennis last year, achieving an immediate success
that was highlighted by a trip to the quarterfinals in
Melbourne. Hingis is more of a threat to the top players on
slower surfaces that allow her additional time to work
points strategically and better protect her creampuff
serve. Hingis has always enjoyed playing on the Rebound Ace
and the right draw could easily send Martina into the semis,
but the fact remains that she can be outgunned from the
baseline by an ever-increasing number of younger players and
established veterans.
Case in
point, Jelena Jankovic. A US Open semifinalist last year,
Jankovic nearly took out Henin-Hardenne before immaturity
and emotions got the best of her. With that lesson learned
and tucked firmly under her brashly purple pleated skirt,
Jelena Jankovic has started the year off right by winning a
warm-up title in Auckland and upsetting Hingis in the first
round of the Sydney International. Jankovic may very well
be the hottest player on tour heading into the Australian
Open and is looking to bust into the quite crowded women’s
top ten by the end of the year. Jelena leads a new wave of
women’s players that includes power hitters Dinara Safina
and Nicole Vaidisova. Safina won a warm-up on Australia’s
Gold Coast, also at Hingis’s expense, and Vaidisova is the
statuesque and Sharapova-esque teen who broke though to the
semifinals of last year’s French Open.
Inbetween the
top tier of contenders and the dark horse up-and-comers lies
a fleet of established names with unpredictable games:
Svetlana Kuznetsova, a one-time major champion, can beat
anyone when she’s stepping into the ball and striking her
shots confidently; Elena Dementieva punishes the ball from
the baseline with flat, laser-like groundstrokes that are
championship worthy, yet her erratic serving cannot sustain
her through seven consecutive matches against the world’s
best players; Russia’s Nadia Petrova seemed poised for a
breakthrough last year, but has fallen back off of the form
that propelled her into the world’s top five. When she’s
playing well, she has the game to go deep in any Grand Slam
tournament, although she has yet to do so. The 2007 season
may be a case of “now or never” for Petrova.
Venus and
Serena Williams have dropped off of the tennis radar with a
combination of injuries and legal battles, and the tour they
lifted to a new standard of athleticism is lacking for the
benchmark they once set. Both are scheduled to play in
Australia, although Venus is recovering from continued wrist
injuries. Meanwhile, Serena is now ranked 95th
in the world and hoping to play her way back into fighting
form at smaller warm-up events. Although Serena is still
more of a threat to generate headlines than win the trophy,
the former champion is a fierce competitor with a will that
accepts no questions. As such, Serena Williams cannot be
counted out.
The Joy
Of Self-Definition
The
Australian Open was once unpredictable because so many top
players were not willing to travel halfway around the world
to compete, giving opportunity to unknowns to raise the
championship trophy and put a Grand Slam title on their
resume. Although the tournament has evolved and now draws
all the best players to its courts, its early-season timing
and harsh weather conditions allow the Australian Open to
remain equally unpredictable and deliciously dramatic in an
era of few boundaries that sees players ranked outside the
Top 100 in the world challenge (and sometimes defeat)
players ranked in the top ten. No champion is a complete
certainty Down Under, where anything can happen and anyone
can win. There is no doubt this year’s field of men and
women will all be looking to define themselves via the first
major title of the season, be it as the man on top or the
woman in charge.
Predictions:
Men’s Champion: Roger
Federer
Women’s Champion: Kim
Clijsters
Wyman Meers is a writer
living in New York. He is Gaga4Gaby on the
Outsports Discussion Board.
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