Michael Sam detractors seem to be coming out of the woodwork this week. While various experts peg the 2013 SEC Defensive Player of the Year as a seventh-round pick, some, like Nate Silver and Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writer Bob McGinn, suggest there's about a 50% chance that Sam isn't drafted at all. From Silver:
Former Missouri defensive end Michael Sam, who in February announced that he was gay, may not be among the 256 men chosen in this year's NFL draft, which begins Thursday. In fact, based on a historical assessment of players who were rated similarly by media scouting projections, Sam's chances of being drafted are only about 50-50.
Of course, that's not saying much from Silver. Whether Sam is drafted or not, Silver is right. Silver always leaves himself an out, whether it's a 10% chance or a 50% chance.
I just chatted with Cameron Weiss, Sam's agent, who shook his head at the far-fetched suggestion that Sam might not be drafted.
"Prognosticators are prognosticators," Weiss told me. "They're not employed by NFL teams."
I put Sam's chances at 99.99%. If the 2014 draft took place 10,000 times, he would go undrafted once. Maybe that's leaving myself an out too, so let me be super clear: Michael Sam will be drafted by an NFL team.